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Back in 2018, a mere a short phrase to ignite a Labour conference and to show the party was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. Although not precisely soaring oratory, the words were greeted with rapturous applause as most of the hall stood for spontaneous acclamation.

As the commotion died down, the then-Brexit spokesman, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". Context, however, is key.

In that darkly divisive time in 2018, departing from his agreed text in this way was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise leave supporters in key constituencies above the Europhile sentiments of his party. In just one speech, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who championed the party's base against the leadership he would later replace.

The Evolution in Position and Closed Debates

In the years since, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. An early move after taking over in 2020 was to declare the EU question was resolved by the 2019 general election. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” promises that forbade re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.

Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has been to pursue pro-Leave voters in target constituencies, even if polling evidence suggests a significant number have died or changed their minds.

Pressure Building on the EU

However, it’s now Starmer is now to face the pressures of being a Labour leader. And, if Europe may not be the central crisis in UK politics, the cap that has been kept firmly shut for five years is beginning to rattle once more.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified their language about the devastation that leaving the EU has caused to the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and remains his only real achievement.

Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has left Britain with an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, towers over the micro-mitigation thus far implemented by ministers. Starmer’s so-called relationship reset agreed with Brussels last summer offers economic benefits quantified in low decimal points.

Internal Pressure and Bolder Ideas

Rachel Reeves is one of those trying to overcome entrenched interior ministry opposition to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme by which young people can travel between Britain and Europe for work or study.

David Lammy muses openly about the clear advantages of being in a customs union with the EU, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the powerful finance committee, last week supported a Liberal Democrat motion on customs union membership.

While the Europe minister, the minister in charge of EU policy, now present at all cabinet sessions, maintains the red lines are still in place, there exist avenues to work around them. One idea involves announce the start of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the next manifesto, with implementation only if Labour won a fresh mandate.

The Prime Minister's Fundamental Scepticism

However, Starmer has lately been damping it all down again by warning a return to a European customs area would “unravel” the trade pacts with America, which he views as key accomplishments of his government.

Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns.

1. First, he believes a customs pact is now significantly more difficult because his ministers actively diverging from European rules in numerous policy areas, like environmental standards.
2. Secondly, the exorbitant price set for the UK for entry into the EU’s new defence fund and the subsequent collapse in talks has convinced British officials that European nations have little interest in cutting special deals with Britain than in proving that Brexit does not work.
3. Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is seen by key advisors in Number 10 as a reason for Britain to keep its distance from the EU.

A Bizarre Document and Strategic Calculations

This strange and concerning document asserts Europe is threatened by cultural extinction due to immigration. It includes only one reference to Britain, found on a suggestion that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in British politics to encourage the growth of nationalist movements.

But, far from deciding that this makes America an undependable ally, the government reportedly fear that aligning closer with Europe would destabilise geopolitics further by risking precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Leadership Speculation & The Echo from the Past

This situation brings us back to 2018. The PM has consistently stated that address was not a pitch to become leader but merely an attempt to preserve the “option” of remain being on the ballot paper. In fact, in those days, he still supported a tailored trade agreement of the kind he currently seems to reject.

Observers within the Prime Minister's office note that the Health Secretary, widely considered would be a candidate in any leadership election, is among a group of cabinet ministers letting it be known they want to go further regarding the EU.

Aides to Angela Rayner, another probable runner in a contest for the top job, maintain she won’t discuss her stance regarding a customs pact as it would merely “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Obvious Risk and A Prudent Memory

The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to claim the territory where most of the party's supporters are to be found.

It would be prudent for Starmer to remember the impact that a short phrase had for him in 2018. There are options for a major proposal on Europe which the PM ought to consider; he should prise them open personally, rather than letting rivals adopt them as their own.